The Science Behind Don't Look Up: Asteroids, Ignorance, and Humanity’s “It’ll Be Fine” Attitude

Now, Don't Look Up might not be my favorite film (I have others that hold that title), but I’ve got to admit—this one packs a punch. But if you haven't seen it yet, well, spoiler alert: there is a massive comet hurtling toward Earth, and almost nobody is paying much mind to that while in denial or waiting for it to be the next viral TikTok challenge for instead of an extinction-level event. Welcome to humanity! Where we ignore mathematical certainty over celebrity scandals.

But what I like about this film (aside from its being the biggest satire of modern society, I ever did see) is that it employs actual science to demonstrate the impending doom. So grab a telescope and let's take a closer look at the science, math, and general hilarity of human reaction to its very own destruction.

 Comet Impact: The Math of Global Destruction

Comet

First of all, let's discuss comets. Well, in Don't Look Up, the comet is about 10 kilometers wide; that is roughly the height of Mount Everest. And if there's anything I know about math (spoiler: I love math), it's that big objects moving really fast = disaster.

The movie gives an image of some great space rock on collision course with Earth. What's realistic? NASA tracks about 25,000 near-Earth objects, or NEOs. Of those, about 1,000 are considered "potentially hazardous." Not many of those are as large as the one in the movie, but a 10-kilometer-wide object is a dinosaur-level killer. Literally.

Let's crunch it down in terms of kinetic energy. This is the kinetic energy formula:

KE = ½ mv²

Where:
KE is kinetic energy (in joules)
m is mass (in kilograms)
v is velocity (in meters per second)

A 10-kilometer-wide comet might weigh as much as a trillion tons, and would probably be traveling at about 30 kilometers per second. So we plug that into the equation, and we're talking about an energy release of at least 100 million megatons of TNT. To put this in perspective, the biggest nuclear bomb ever detonated, the Tsar Bomba, released 50 megatons of energy. That means that this comet is equivalent in energy to 2 million Tsar Bombas. Good luck surviving that.

To get an idea of this, it's kind of like the eruption of all Earth's volcanoes at once, and then throw in a few hundred thousand for kicks. Or, visualize dropping a bowling ball made of pure steel from the top of a skyscraper onto your foot—except instead of your foot, it's the whole planet.

 The Torino Scale: Just How Deadly is This Comet?

We have in real life something called the Torino Scale rating the threat of asteroids and comets on a scale from 0 to 10. A 0 means "don't worry about it," whereas a 10 means "better start praying; it's game over." The comet in Don't Look Up? That's an easy 10.

The only way we can get a Torino Scale 10-level threat is if we have a space rock at least a few kilometers wide headed directly for us. The chances of that happening? Pretty low on an annual basis—at around 1 in 500,000. And yet, we have billions of years to concern ourselves with it. The bad luck of the dinosaurs was running into a 10—and they didn't have Bruce Willis to save them. Sorry, Armageddon fans, but blowing up an asteroid doesn't really work—more on that later.

Deflecting Asteroids: Fact vs. Fiction

In Don't Look Up, a frenzied effort is made to decide how to stop this comet. Spoiler alert: it doesn't exactly go swimmingly. They bandy about nukes and, well, we all remember Armageddon, right? Except in the real world, blowing up a comet just makes one big rock a lot of smaller, still dangerous rocks. It's like throwing a plate at the wall and saying, "Well, at least now I have more plates!"

So what does science actually say about stopping a comet? As it turns out, there are a few real options, but dramatic slow-motion walks away from exploding space rocks aren't among them. Here are some of the actual methods NASA considered:

Kinetic Impactor: You launch a spacecraft to crash into the asteroid and, hopefully, knock it off course. It's basically a cosmic game of pool, only instead of balls, you are whacking around killer space rocks. NASA's DART mission (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) proves this works to date, becoming the first-ever attempt by humanity to nudge an asteroid off its collision course with Earth.

Nuclear Explosions: You might detonate a nuclear device close to the comet-not to explode it but nudging it a little bit. We are not looking to destroy it (remember the plate metaphor?), we just want to nudge it a little so that it misses the Earth. Again, we're talking millimeters of movement when you think about how big those distances are in space. Tiny changes make huge differences when we're talking millions of kilometers.

Gravity Tractor: It's a fascinating concept that sounds like science fiction; it's true! You send your spacecraft near the comet, and slowly the gravitational pull between the two objects starts tugging the comet away in its orbit. And slow it is, but in space, little force is needed if you have time to apply it.

Gravity Tractor

One thing that must be noted is if we indeed knew beforehand that the comet was coming, decades ahead of time, then one of these methods may have a chance. In the case of Don't Look Up, however, everything is a bit more. desperate with this six-month timespan.

Why Humanity Tends to Ignore Science (Until It's Too Late)

One of the sadder-and more comic-aspects of Don't Look Up is how society, media, and politicians react to the reports that may be the end tomorrow. Spoiler alert: they do not respond well. There are those too busy being celebrity worshipers, meme users, or political squabblers to take notice of the fact that an extinction-level event is occurring.

It was thought beautifully, using the comet as a metaphor, to typify how climate change would be, but this is not new behavior. It's founded on a psychological phenomenon: cognitive dissonance. When people are faced with an unpalatable truth-for example, the world end-they tend to ignore it rather than undergo the stress and anxiety that it inflicts upon them.

And then there is the Optimism Bias, by which man has a tendency to believe that bad things won't happen to him. So even if scientists are saying, "Hey, there's a really, really huge space rock heading for us," so many would say, "Eh, it won't hit me." Mix that with the clickbait and ratings encouraged by media, you have a recipe for disaster.

The Physics of Impact: What Happens When a Comet Hits Earth?

Barringer Crater

So, if we didn't deflect the comet? What if we just… forgot about it, like in the movie? The consequences would be apocalyptic. Let's go step by step through the physics of a comet impact.

If a 10-kilometer wide comet crashes Earth, that collision travels at an approximate speed of 20-30 kilometers per second. That's 50 times faster than a bullet. When it collides, it will liberate the energy of 10 billion Hiroshima bombs. That is to say, with the energy liberated from this collision, it could ignite:

Shock Waves: Anything within hundreds of miles would be crushed flat. Buildings, trees, mountains- nothing will remain.

Wildfires: This much heat generated will set fire on continents.

Global Tsunamis: If the comet would hit the ocean, probably since Earth is 71% water, skyscraper-sized tsunamis would ensue. Remember the movie Deep Impact? It would be worse.

Global Winter: it would spew so much dust and debris into the atmosphere that sunlight would be blocked for months or years, what scientists call an impact winter. The last time it happened, 75 percent of all species on Earth went extinct.

And if that's not terrifying enough, there's also the delayed death scenario: even if you survive the initial impact, the aftermath of this would be an ecosystem and agricultural collapse, which would just lead to mass starvation. (Yay, science!)

 Asteroid Mining: Billionaires to the Rescue?

Then, of course, is the subplot of the tech billionaire who sees a commercial opportunity in the comet-rather than a threat. He believes he can mine its valuable minerals. It's not as far-fetched as it sounds. For one thing, asteroids-and comets-are rich in metals, including gold, platinum, and even water (which can be turned into rocket fuel). The potential worth of asteroid mining? Trillions of dollars.

Mining asteroids is in fact a serious venture for companies such as Planetary Resources and Deep Space Industries. The logic is simple: why destroy the planet looking for rare metals when we can just take them from space? In fact, NASA's OSIRIS-REx mission successfully collected samples from the asteroid Bennu, which contains more than $ 700 million worth of platinum.

Of course, in Don't Look Up, this brilliant idea backfires in the most spectacular way possible, because—surprise, surprise—mining an object hurtling toward Earth at 30 kilometers per second is a little harder than it sounds.

Why We Should Actually Look Up

So, what's the takeaway from all this comet/asteroid talk? Well, it's simple: look up.

The film, however satirical, gives an awful warning. We do have the technology to track and deflect space rocks, but we also have the very human tendency to ignore problems until they are too late. Be it climate change, pandemics or the proverbial big space rock, we must trust in the math and science, not just cross our fingers and hope for the best.

As Don't Look Up graphically demonstrates, our shared fate hangs in the balance between looking up, looking at facts, and, most importantly, doing something about them.